GEOCIENCIAS |
La Resistencia Proabilística de Materiales (RPM) y la Imposibilidad de Predecir Terremtos |
This paper presents in elementary empirical fashion the property exhibited by fissures and cuts to concentrate stresses. It is shown how stress required to propagate a fissure is an stochastic variable with dispersion and mean values. Owing to this property, brittle materials, which contain an infinite number of fissures of different sizes, location and orientation, have fracture and location stresses in keeping with probability laws. On the other hand, earthquakes are fractures in brittle materials and hence are probabilistic phenomena and obey uncertainty principles of the Probabilistic Strength of Materials (PSM). Thus it becomes impossible to predict with sufficient precision at which time and place a given seism is likely to occur. (The english version of this article may be obtained upon request from G. D.)